10 years from now, Malaysia will go the way of Myanmar economically and socially. We will become a poor nation. This will be the worst case scenario. At best, we will be prodding along aimlessly amidst a region of up and coming super-powers and secondary-powers. We will survive and that will be just about it. If we are that lucky.
In this age and time, it will not take a generation for a nation to be reduced to economic and political insignificance. Even with the best intentioned government of the day, it only needs less than 10 years for a country to go the way of Myanmar or Brazil in the 1980s. I fear that this nation of ours is also on this perilous path.
Not such a nice thing to say especially in this season of festivities and merry making but it needs to be said. We are in deep trouble and the government and us the people need to sit up and take stock of what we are up against. Forget whatever you have been fed with in terms of how advanced we are in this or that. Forget about what the official media tells you about how attractive we are for the investors. We are no longer the shining star we used to be. Of course we are still surrounded by the relics of our golden age, just as the Italians are probably constantly reminded of their glorious past; but that doesn't mean a thing. So, forget too that our relics are a sign of our greatness. It was past greatness (if at all it was one). By next year, China will be the 2nd largest economy in the world. By 2050, India will rival China. Between these two powers, there will emerge a form of modern day tribute states whose sole function will be to manufacture goods and provide energy and resources to these two countries. By 2050, today’s developed countries will be at an economic plane that is higher and more advanced and they would have, by then, entirely divorced themselves from the 3D jobs (dirty, dangerous and difficult). I think it is not science fiction to say that the day will soon come where the western countries (and Japan, Korea) will be managing the ‘knowledge of the world’ while countries like China, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Nigeria and Indonesia will be so well positioned that they will do everything else.
Where will we be in this scenario? A tribute state or a leading knowledge driven economy given due respect and recognition by the ‘knowledge super powers’?
As alarmists as my statement may sound, it is nevertheless not something that has missed the more discerning Malaysians. Take Datuk Seri Mohd Effendi Norwawi. On Dec 20, he wrote a piece of enlightening and bold piece of opinion that I hope will be translated into the Malay, Tamil and Mandarin languages and published in the respective papers. For one, this may kick them into sobriety and realization that while they are busy condemning each other, this motherland of ours is going deeper into oblivion. Next, it may jolt the man on the street to demand more than just temples, suraus and churches from their elected representatives and ask what on earth they are doing to prepare us for the next 10 years.
The respected Datuk Seri says that The New Economy Model (something I will touch on later here) will not succeed unless it is supported by a new implementation model.
Then on 24th December, the shining star of Malaysian intellectual and principled discussion, Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam (one of the original drafters of the NEP in 1970, the year of my birth) wrote in the same paper that not only do we need an implementation model for the New Economic Model, we also need to ensure that the model is not flawed to begin with.
The statistics that are being churned out are not pretty. Vietnam for example had overtaken us in many areas especially in terms of attracting FDI. We are also loosing out in the knowledge economy as we didn’t continue the initial push and investments in this area. Our biotechnology and our multimedia are doing a great job despite the odds stacked against them. It's a wonder how they are doing as well as they do considering that they have to answer to a bunch of bickering and obnoxious politicians who for some strange and peculiar reason inevitably become the masters of these areas of utmost importance to our survival as a nation.
Come February, we will know what our New Economic Model is all about. The fact that we need a new economic model and the fact that the current administration had seen it prudent to develop one is a testimony to the fact that our Vision 2020 is not achievable under the current circumstances. Of course we can always point our fingers at the sudden and unexpected economic downturn for this but if we look carefully, we could see that right from the beginning, Vision 2020 was doomed to fail as it so entirely depended on external factors i.e. the global economy staying bullish AND it was based upon the fact that the failures of the NEP could be whitewashed by the sheer prosperity of the economy (read the size of the economic pie). Very little of Vision 2020 was dedicated to develop a framework for organic growth and innovation to sustain us regardless of how the global economy was performing. Although it’s true that, as Bill Clinton says, this is an interdependent age where there is no way we can on our own ensure our growth and prosperity. We will have to and must depend on the wider global scheme of things. Yet, we must also surely have some gumption to do things that gives us some form of insurance against being totally dependent on the ebb and flow of world economy.
Hence, it seems to me that finally our policy makers have come upon the one thing that we have been paying only lip service all these while: Innovation. So, the new economic model will apparently drive us towards an innovative economy. It also seems that we are going to become an innovative economy and we will be capable of emulating the innovativeness of the Americans and the Europeans.
So far, from the little snippets that are being leaked out on the new economic model, I must say that all the right things are being said. However, whatever the final look and feel of the new economic paradigm is going to be, I anticipate the following 7 factors will play a critical role in determining its eventual success or failure:
1. All stakeholders in nation building MUST accept that this will be a long term drive. All political parties, racial champions, NGOs and the intelligentsia must acknowledge the fact that a new economic model is not a quick fix but rather a slow and potentially painful recovery process. It's a total re-alignment of what we need to do to our economic engine.
2. Everybody….absolutely everybody needs to realize that American innovation in the past was a direct result of her willingness to allow for differences of opinion and respect for differences. She welcomed all. She embraced all. Malaysia needs to do that. Let’s begin by tapping into the creativity and innovation latent in the hearts and minds of our minority groups whose talents are being wasted due to the stifling social infrastructure which has long lost its usefulness. The time is now to revolutionize our thinking and this revolution should begin with the idea that “Malaysian innovation lies in its people…all her people”. We can’t say that we will have an innovation driven new economic model by merely inviting global companies to set up shop in Iskandar. Even if Steve Jobs takes up our ‘Malaysia, my second home’ offer, we will still not become an innovative economy. The reason for this…my next point…
3. Go for the jugular of our education system. Kill it. Allow for a rebirth. Anything less will not work. The killer of innovation today is our education system. As it is now, not only does it block true and meaningful integration, it also stifles innovation at the most fertile ground: our children. As long as our education does not produce a generation of people who can ask the right questions, we will not become an innovative nation in any meaningful way.
4. The BEST minds should get the job and do the job. Regardless in what skin colour that mind may be wrapped in.
5. All new economic initiatives must be designed to take us out of the middle –income trap which means that by merely attracting manufacturing related FDI will not be sufficient.
6. The Iskandar region must be de-politicized and made into a model for the implementation of the New Economic Model.
7. Our institutions of higher education must be governed by a fully empowered board of governors who must have the power to hire and fire. This board must be comprised by people of the highest social standing and achievements; regardless of their racial and cultural background.
The future of our country lies in what exactly the New Economic Model is. Will it be a true and honest policy with equally honest and robust implementation focus? Or, will it be another ‘flavor of the administration’ and as vague as the 1Malaysia concept?
I have hopes that our current Prime Minister (if he can keep the humbugs of our political landscape at bay), will do things right and do the right things. He has that pedigree. But maybe, he needs more than just his political power. He may end up needing a referendum of our collective support to ensure that we don't go the way of Myanmar.
Friday, December 25, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
The World of Work - On the Ground Level
As I sit here at the spanking clean departure lounge of the Senai Airport (officially its Sultan Ismail Airport but my security-check label says its Senai Aiport and I too prefer the latter), I am observing a cleaning lady going about her work. For the past 35 minutes or so she has been going up and down the aisle where I am facing, cleaning it to a shine. First, she cleaned it from dust, then it was a wet mop and finally (I thought) a dry mop. No. She was not finished. She came back again one more time to make sure she had not missed a spot.
This morning, I was served my first coffee of the day by a young man at the Crystal Crown hotel. He was smiling and courteous. As I was one of the few there so early in the morning, he greeted me and asked whether I was heading back to the airport. I said no and that I was actually getting ready for work at a client’s place (without telling what exactly I do). I then asked him what time he will go off and he replied “In about 30 minutes”. Which meant, it will be 7 am then. Then it dawned on me that he had been working the night shift which typically in a hotel means : 7pm – 7am. Yet, he was smiling and having a friendly chat with me. Doing things that were not probably expected or required of a 3-star hotel waiter in Malaysia.
My taxi driver, whom I used for all my running about the last 2 days was a jovial and cheeky guy. He had something cute to say to all the toll booth girls and they responded with a smile or laugh. He had scars on his face and looked like a possible ‘gangster turned good” type. Even after driving around the madly crowded JB city, he still had that cheerfulness about him. He made me relax on the way back to the airport a little while ago although I was drained after an excuriuatingly difficult session with a group of people who took me on (unofficially) as their therapists!
Coming back to the cleaning lady; I don’t see her anymore. Probably cleaning another spot somewhere else in this building.
What I am thinking is : how many times had her supervisors said ‘thank-you’ or ‘good job’ to her this past one week? How many ‘pats on the back’ did that young man get or how many thank you’s did my taxi driver get?
What is it about us humans and our world of work? What is it that absorbs us into it?. It takes our life. We want to work. We want to contribute. We want to envelope ourselves with meaning and we use our work to provide that meaning. Without work, life has no meaning. Yet, we have not mastered this magic and use it to lead our people. We hardly understand the meaning of work in our own lives. Its amazing that we understand so little of something that takes up our entire lives.
On my study table at home, I have a little post-it-note with the words “ Every little act of work can become creation – beautiful and holy. Worship through work”. Krishna told Arjuna to act. When Arjuna sat in despair and threw his armour and weapons to the ground, Krishna had basically said “ Get up you fool…do your job. You are a soldier. So, fight you lazy potato”. And so Arjuna fought.
There is magic in work. But, there is miracle in those who work for passion. Its a tragedy when they are not recognised.
This morning, I was served my first coffee of the day by a young man at the Crystal Crown hotel. He was smiling and courteous. As I was one of the few there so early in the morning, he greeted me and asked whether I was heading back to the airport. I said no and that I was actually getting ready for work at a client’s place (without telling what exactly I do). I then asked him what time he will go off and he replied “In about 30 minutes”. Which meant, it will be 7 am then. Then it dawned on me that he had been working the night shift which typically in a hotel means : 7pm – 7am. Yet, he was smiling and having a friendly chat with me. Doing things that were not probably expected or required of a 3-star hotel waiter in Malaysia.
My taxi driver, whom I used for all my running about the last 2 days was a jovial and cheeky guy. He had something cute to say to all the toll booth girls and they responded with a smile or laugh. He had scars on his face and looked like a possible ‘gangster turned good” type. Even after driving around the madly crowded JB city, he still had that cheerfulness about him. He made me relax on the way back to the airport a little while ago although I was drained after an excuriuatingly difficult session with a group of people who took me on (unofficially) as their therapists!
Coming back to the cleaning lady; I don’t see her anymore. Probably cleaning another spot somewhere else in this building.
What I am thinking is : how many times had her supervisors said ‘thank-you’ or ‘good job’ to her this past one week? How many ‘pats on the back’ did that young man get or how many thank you’s did my taxi driver get?
What is it about us humans and our world of work? What is it that absorbs us into it?. It takes our life. We want to work. We want to contribute. We want to envelope ourselves with meaning and we use our work to provide that meaning. Without work, life has no meaning. Yet, we have not mastered this magic and use it to lead our people. We hardly understand the meaning of work in our own lives. Its amazing that we understand so little of something that takes up our entire lives.
On my study table at home, I have a little post-it-note with the words “ Every little act of work can become creation – beautiful and holy. Worship through work”. Krishna told Arjuna to act. When Arjuna sat in despair and threw his armour and weapons to the ground, Krishna had basically said “ Get up you fool…do your job. You are a soldier. So, fight you lazy potato”. And so Arjuna fought.
There is magic in work. But, there is miracle in those who work for passion. Its a tragedy when they are not recognised.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
2009 : The Year That Was
The following was what I had predicted for 2009. Lets see how I had done this time (in italics)!
Global Trends and Changes (Business)
1.Mega mergers of financial institutions. Probably involving North American and European banks. American law makers will pass a slew of new acts to allow the Feds to keep all forms of financial institutions under close scrutiny. Been there and done that.
2. Chinese manufacturing may not recover from the current slump and this vacuum could be filled by India, Mexico and the former Soviet block countries. In India especially, manufacturing will loose it’s ‘dirty’ tag and become a profession of choice just as IT and services related jobs. I know Chinese manufacturing had lost some of its luster and the millions of workers who were forced to return to the villages were partly blamed for the sporadic violence against government officials and institutions. Indian automotive players made some news (local and foreign) but not much else. I have blogged on what the Nano is going to do for India and by default for the rest of the world.
3. Chinese and Indian firms will aggressively buy into ailing companies at fire-sale prices. Possibility of Indian, Chinese and Middle Eastern investors gaining a foot-hold in Detroit’s automotive industry is quite high. The talk is that Chinese players like Shanghai Automobile Company are getting into Detroit. We all know that Land Rover and Jaguar is part of the Tata brands now.
4. More mergers in the airline industry with Asian flag carriers being the target this time. Asian airline have decided on status quo but British Airways had bought Spain's Iberia
5. The birth and widespread use of extremely affordable note-books which will change the industry inside-out. This will most possibly be spearheaded by giants like IBM and Microsoft with India, China and Latin America as the target markets. Not sure about this. Over the last two years I have been noticing a steady announcements on companies developing affordable computers including laptops. I was hoping that 2009 will be the year for this.
6. Mega mergers of auto manufacturers. Yup. Fiat had a field day in Detroit.
7. Reconfiguration of air-line industry. As above. Though I have forgotten why I have two inputs on the airline industry?!
8. Hostile take-over of Yahoo by Microsoft! They tried. God knows they tried!
9. Mergers involving the world’s three biggest pharma companies with GSK leading the way. Some happened. Pfizer and Wyeth for example.
Global Trends (Politics and Social)
1. 2009 will be defined by Barrack Obama. He will have to manage the unbridled expectations placed on him and the payback that the various interest groups will be clamoring for. The world will begin to see more and more of America’s soft power. As of this week, Obama’s approval rating was hovering around 47%. The honeymoon is over. But, he did indeed make news. From his ‘bow or not to bow’ to his so called multi-tasking are becoming ‘Oprah’ish stuff.
2. Russia will flex its muscles further much to the chagrin of the hawks in Washington. A proxy war of sorts is in the cards. Russia’s dominance in gas supply to Europe will once again become the point of contention. Remember Ukraine?
3. Japan will edge closer to end its pacifist constitution which will anger China. A new schism is quite possible in East Asia. Nope. Japan is as insular and as boring ever.
4. Chinese social revolt will finally come onto international radar screen. The Uighurs were in the news! Amazingly, as I followed the unfolding of this tragedy, I realized how new technologies have enable us to conceptualize, launch and manage an uprising (for whatever reasons)…remotely. I suppose today you can ban someone from staying on your soil but that doesn't mean you can stop her from holding the heart-strings of her followers. Thanks to the internet.
5. India’s relation with Pakistan will worsen and a war between these nuclear powers should not be ruled out. Unless of course, America and the international community decides to avoid an all-out war between these two countries by waging a managed war on Pakistan’s terrorist sheltering regions with UN blessings. As always and as what many believe, Pakistan’s semblance of governance exists only because it is anti India. Take that away and we have a full-fledged rogue nuclear nation. However, things may not be rosy for India with its national elections looming. A hung parliament is likely with the Congress and BJP loosing ground to regional parties. Economic and business wise, things should be quite predictable with the Indian Century continuing its progress. Well, I was way off on the hung parliament stuff as the Congress against all odds consolidated its powers and wiped out many of the regional pests. I know you are laughing….who can ever go wrong by predicting that Indian-Pakistani tensions will rise?!
6. Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities while the Palestinians will look away from America as their peace brokers. Barrack Obama and his team will not have the same kind of self-proclaimed importance for the Arab-Israeli peace process. Hasn’t happened yet but the talk was serious last month and is still a possibility. Maybe a little Christmas present from the Israelis and plunge the rest of the world into despair perhaps?
7. The consolidation of institutions of higher education in the form of branding and marketing. Nope. Proud ivory towerians they are!
8. Protectionist policies and rhetoric will trump free market and liberalization. China will do all it can to protect its economy for anything less will create an unprecedented social calamity. This shift back to ‘hermit economy’ will put the Chinese and the Americans on a loggerhead. Europe will gravitate to more conservative policies spearheaded by France. All over the world, proponents of globalization and free market economy will find themselves hard pressed to explain that globalization is the way forward. Well….just read the news and you will know I was bulls eye on this! When the US announced its almost 800 billion dollars stimulus package, it also made sure that construction projects only used American made steel and iron. This blocked out China, Brazil and Russian made materials. Similarly a recent row broke out over Chinese made automobile tyres.
9.A major military conflict in Africa with Mugabe playing a key role. Nope…but who is keeping track of conflicts in Africa?
10.China will be less tolerant of North Korea. We may see some real breakthrough with the Hermit Kingdom but not before a huge nuclear scare in the Korean peninsular. Yes. China was less than thrilled with the North Koreans hurling spare missiles over Japan.
Malaysia (Business)
1. Datuk Tony Fernandez will sell down his interests in Air Asia. More active participation from Middle East players and Bumiputera centred institutional fund managers in Air Asia. Nope. Not yet!
2. Labu LCCT project will not take off. Oh yes!
3. The merger of two or more banks to form a mega bank positioned to compete at regional levels. Nope.
4. Major changes in the railway industry beginning with KTMB and a possible second operator finally taking shape. Sad. Nothing.
5. The establishment of unit trust funds specifically for Sabah and Sarawak in the likes of the current ASB. Nope.
6. Proton will move beyond Mitsubishi to form a business partnership with a European car maker most notably VW or Peugeot. Talks of merger with Perodua may also surface and be taken seriously. Both are in the news. Something is simmering.
7. Malaysia Airlines will form a ‘partnership’ with SIA. Nope.
8. AK will make some major moves in the market with probably institutional investor support. ASTRO may be taken private. He did make a move…by bringing back Maxis into the public domain.
Malaysia (Politics and Social)
1. Will be a defining year for Malaysia. What Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak says and does immediately after taking over the reigns of the administration will define Malaysia for the next 50 years. He has 2 options : Go back to Mahathirism OR push forward with the reforms set in place by the Abdullah administration. The BN convention slated for early next year will be a watershed in Malaysian politics. The aftermath of this convention may see some BN component parties striking out on their own. Well...Najib has not done anything earth shattering but neither has he reverted to Mahathir style leadership; except perhaps in Perak.
2. The Pakatan Rakyat will be severely tested. But, Perak Penang & Selangor will go further away from BN’s grip. Yes on all counts. At least to me except for Perak. That was a rabbit out of BN’s hat.
3.Radical Indian activism will take root. Yes. The struggle has gone underground. Again. I have said it many times before : the Indian dilemma needs solving. Otherwise, a huge, violent underclass will bring our urban areas to its knees. Lets not forget that the Indians have a collective history of resistance and ‘nationalism’ towards a cause that they can draw lessons from. Besides, the latest round of protests are lead by the Indian intelligentsia which knows how to use all modern political and avenues open to them. I was going through some of my old letters to editors and I came across a letter that I wrote to the NST almost 10 years ago. I wrote then that if the MIC did not change, it will be one of the major cause for BN’s decline.
4. Samy Vellu will not last the year as MIC president. This was a close one. But, who knows. But then, the man had always beaten all predictions.
5. MCA will face its most serious leadership struggle in decades. Amazing right? I just felt it in my coffee fueled guts then.
6. The return to active politics of certain questionable people. The man they call Isa is back by popular demand! Sad.
In summary, I anticipate 2009 to be an exciting year which will define how future generations look at this generation. The world of business will witness a total reengineering with substance finally getting its deserved due over form.
All in all not too bad for some predictions done at the Starbucks at Borders, Curve. The wonders of an Americano grande and some quite time!
Got to do that again soon for 2010.
Global Trends and Changes (Business)
1.Mega mergers of financial institutions. Probably involving North American and European banks. American law makers will pass a slew of new acts to allow the Feds to keep all forms of financial institutions under close scrutiny. Been there and done that.
2. Chinese manufacturing may not recover from the current slump and this vacuum could be filled by India, Mexico and the former Soviet block countries. In India especially, manufacturing will loose it’s ‘dirty’ tag and become a profession of choice just as IT and services related jobs. I know Chinese manufacturing had lost some of its luster and the millions of workers who were forced to return to the villages were partly blamed for the sporadic violence against government officials and institutions. Indian automotive players made some news (local and foreign) but not much else. I have blogged on what the Nano is going to do for India and by default for the rest of the world.
3. Chinese and Indian firms will aggressively buy into ailing companies at fire-sale prices. Possibility of Indian, Chinese and Middle Eastern investors gaining a foot-hold in Detroit’s automotive industry is quite high. The talk is that Chinese players like Shanghai Automobile Company are getting into Detroit. We all know that Land Rover and Jaguar is part of the Tata brands now.
4. More mergers in the airline industry with Asian flag carriers being the target this time. Asian airline have decided on status quo but British Airways had bought Spain's Iberia
5. The birth and widespread use of extremely affordable note-books which will change the industry inside-out. This will most possibly be spearheaded by giants like IBM and Microsoft with India, China and Latin America as the target markets. Not sure about this. Over the last two years I have been noticing a steady announcements on companies developing affordable computers including laptops. I was hoping that 2009 will be the year for this.
6. Mega mergers of auto manufacturers. Yup. Fiat had a field day in Detroit.
7. Reconfiguration of air-line industry. As above. Though I have forgotten why I have two inputs on the airline industry?!
8. Hostile take-over of Yahoo by Microsoft! They tried. God knows they tried!
9. Mergers involving the world’s three biggest pharma companies with GSK leading the way. Some happened. Pfizer and Wyeth for example.
Global Trends (Politics and Social)
1. 2009 will be defined by Barrack Obama. He will have to manage the unbridled expectations placed on him and the payback that the various interest groups will be clamoring for. The world will begin to see more and more of America’s soft power. As of this week, Obama’s approval rating was hovering around 47%. The honeymoon is over. But, he did indeed make news. From his ‘bow or not to bow’ to his so called multi-tasking are becoming ‘Oprah’ish stuff.
2. Russia will flex its muscles further much to the chagrin of the hawks in Washington. A proxy war of sorts is in the cards. Russia’s dominance in gas supply to Europe will once again become the point of contention. Remember Ukraine?
3. Japan will edge closer to end its pacifist constitution which will anger China. A new schism is quite possible in East Asia. Nope. Japan is as insular and as boring ever.
4. Chinese social revolt will finally come onto international radar screen. The Uighurs were in the news! Amazingly, as I followed the unfolding of this tragedy, I realized how new technologies have enable us to conceptualize, launch and manage an uprising (for whatever reasons)…remotely. I suppose today you can ban someone from staying on your soil but that doesn't mean you can stop her from holding the heart-strings of her followers. Thanks to the internet.
5. India’s relation with Pakistan will worsen and a war between these nuclear powers should not be ruled out. Unless of course, America and the international community decides to avoid an all-out war between these two countries by waging a managed war on Pakistan’s terrorist sheltering regions with UN blessings. As always and as what many believe, Pakistan’s semblance of governance exists only because it is anti India. Take that away and we have a full-fledged rogue nuclear nation. However, things may not be rosy for India with its national elections looming. A hung parliament is likely with the Congress and BJP loosing ground to regional parties. Economic and business wise, things should be quite predictable with the Indian Century continuing its progress. Well, I was way off on the hung parliament stuff as the Congress against all odds consolidated its powers and wiped out many of the regional pests. I know you are laughing….who can ever go wrong by predicting that Indian-Pakistani tensions will rise?!
6. Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities while the Palestinians will look away from America as their peace brokers. Barrack Obama and his team will not have the same kind of self-proclaimed importance for the Arab-Israeli peace process. Hasn’t happened yet but the talk was serious last month and is still a possibility. Maybe a little Christmas present from the Israelis and plunge the rest of the world into despair perhaps?
7. The consolidation of institutions of higher education in the form of branding and marketing. Nope. Proud ivory towerians they are!
8. Protectionist policies and rhetoric will trump free market and liberalization. China will do all it can to protect its economy for anything less will create an unprecedented social calamity. This shift back to ‘hermit economy’ will put the Chinese and the Americans on a loggerhead. Europe will gravitate to more conservative policies spearheaded by France. All over the world, proponents of globalization and free market economy will find themselves hard pressed to explain that globalization is the way forward. Well….just read the news and you will know I was bulls eye on this! When the US announced its almost 800 billion dollars stimulus package, it also made sure that construction projects only used American made steel and iron. This blocked out China, Brazil and Russian made materials. Similarly a recent row broke out over Chinese made automobile tyres.
9.A major military conflict in Africa with Mugabe playing a key role. Nope…but who is keeping track of conflicts in Africa?
10.China will be less tolerant of North Korea. We may see some real breakthrough with the Hermit Kingdom but not before a huge nuclear scare in the Korean peninsular. Yes. China was less than thrilled with the North Koreans hurling spare missiles over Japan.
Malaysia (Business)
1. Datuk Tony Fernandez will sell down his interests in Air Asia. More active participation from Middle East players and Bumiputera centred institutional fund managers in Air Asia. Nope. Not yet!
2. Labu LCCT project will not take off. Oh yes!
3. The merger of two or more banks to form a mega bank positioned to compete at regional levels. Nope.
4. Major changes in the railway industry beginning with KTMB and a possible second operator finally taking shape. Sad. Nothing.
5. The establishment of unit trust funds specifically for Sabah and Sarawak in the likes of the current ASB. Nope.
6. Proton will move beyond Mitsubishi to form a business partnership with a European car maker most notably VW or Peugeot. Talks of merger with Perodua may also surface and be taken seriously. Both are in the news. Something is simmering.
7. Malaysia Airlines will form a ‘partnership’ with SIA. Nope.
8. AK will make some major moves in the market with probably institutional investor support. ASTRO may be taken private. He did make a move…by bringing back Maxis into the public domain.
Malaysia (Politics and Social)
1. Will be a defining year for Malaysia. What Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak says and does immediately after taking over the reigns of the administration will define Malaysia for the next 50 years. He has 2 options : Go back to Mahathirism OR push forward with the reforms set in place by the Abdullah administration. The BN convention slated for early next year will be a watershed in Malaysian politics. The aftermath of this convention may see some BN component parties striking out on their own. Well...Najib has not done anything earth shattering but neither has he reverted to Mahathir style leadership; except perhaps in Perak.
2. The Pakatan Rakyat will be severely tested. But, Perak Penang & Selangor will go further away from BN’s grip. Yes on all counts. At least to me except for Perak. That was a rabbit out of BN’s hat.
3.Radical Indian activism will take root. Yes. The struggle has gone underground. Again. I have said it many times before : the Indian dilemma needs solving. Otherwise, a huge, violent underclass will bring our urban areas to its knees. Lets not forget that the Indians have a collective history of resistance and ‘nationalism’ towards a cause that they can draw lessons from. Besides, the latest round of protests are lead by the Indian intelligentsia which knows how to use all modern political and avenues open to them. I was going through some of my old letters to editors and I came across a letter that I wrote to the NST almost 10 years ago. I wrote then that if the MIC did not change, it will be one of the major cause for BN’s decline.
4. Samy Vellu will not last the year as MIC president. This was a close one. But, who knows. But then, the man had always beaten all predictions.
5. MCA will face its most serious leadership struggle in decades. Amazing right? I just felt it in my coffee fueled guts then.
6. The return to active politics of certain questionable people. The man they call Isa is back by popular demand! Sad.
In summary, I anticipate 2009 to be an exciting year which will define how future generations look at this generation. The world of business will witness a total reengineering with substance finally getting its deserved due over form.
All in all not too bad for some predictions done at the Starbucks at Borders, Curve. The wonders of an Americano grande and some quite time!
Got to do that again soon for 2010.
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