2009 : Through My Eyes

Global Trends and Changes (Business)

1.Mega mergers of financial institutions. Probably involving North American and European banks. American law makers will pass a slew of new acts to allow the Feds to keep all forms of financial institutions under close scrutiny.

2.Chinese manufacturing may not recover from the current slump and this vacuum could be filled by India, Mexico and the former Soviet block countries. In India especially, manufacturing will loose it’s ‘dirty’ tag and become a profession of choice just as IT and services related jobs.

3.Chinese and Indian firms will aggressively buy into ailing western companies at fire-sale prices. Possibility of Indian, Chinese and Middle Eastern investors gaining a foot-hold in Detroit’s automotive industry is quite high.

4.More mergers in the airline industry with Asian flag carriers being the target this time.

5.The birth and widespread use of extremely affordable note-books which will change the industry inside-out. This will most possibly be spearheaded by giants like IBM and Microsoft with India, China and Latin America as the target markets.

6.Mega mergers of auto manufacturers.

7.Reconfiguration of air-line industry.

8.Hostile take-over of Yahoo by Microsoft!

9.Mergers involving the world’s three biggest pharma companies with GSK leading the way.

10. The first economical and viable battery powered mass production car.



Global Trends (Politics and Social)

1.2009 will be defined by Barrack Obama. He will have to manage the unbridled expectations placed on him and the payback that the various interest groups will be clamoring for. The world will begin to see more and more of America’s soft power.

2.Russia will flex its muscles further much to the chagrin of the hawks in Washington. A proxy war of sorts is in the cards. Russia’s dominance in gas supply to Europe will once again become the point of contention.

3.Japan will edge closer to end its pacifist constitution which will anger China. A new schism is quite possible in East Asia.

4.Chinese social revolt will finally come onto international radar screen. But, the Chinese involvement in trying to keep world economy from going into total chaos will win new friends in the capital markets of the world but popular politics will once gain spiral into China-bashing.

5.India’s relation with Pakistan will worsen and a war between these nuclear powers should not be ruled out. Unless of course, America and the international community decides to avoid an all-out war between these two countries by waging a managed war on Pakistan’s terrorist sheltering regions with UN blessings. As always and as what many believe, Pakistan’s semblance of governance exists only because it is anti India. Take that away and we have a full-fledged rogue nuclear nation. However, things may not be rosy for India with its national elections looming. A hung parliament is likely with the Congress and BJP loosing ground to regional parties. Economic and business wise, things should be quite predictable with the Indian Century continuing its progress.

6.Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities while the Palestinians will look away from America as their peace brokers. Barrack Obama and his team will not have the same kind of self-proclaimed importance for the Arab-Israeli peace process. More and more Americans will come to see how their nation's blind support to Israel is undermining America's own international interests. Their voices will get organised this year.

7.The consolidation of institutions of higher education in the form of branding and marketing.

8.Protectionist policies and rhetoric will trump free market and liberalization. China will do all it can to protect its economy for anything less will create an unprecedented social calamity. This shift back to a closed economy will put the Chinese and the Americans on a loggerhead. Europe will gravitate to more conservative policies spearheaded by France. All over the world, proponents of globalization and free market economy will find themselves hard pressed to explain that globalization is the way forward.

9.A major military conflict in Africa with Mugabe playing a key role.

10.China will be less tolerant of North Korea. We may see some real breakthrough with the Hermit Kingdom but not before a huge nuclear scare in the Korean peninsular.

11. A firmer union of South American nations will take place with Brazil and Venezuela roughing it out for moral and political leadership.

12. Tamil Tigers will have the last say in Sri Lanka...at a terrible price. Any arm-chair analysts can see that they let go of their de-facto capital far too easily to government soldiers. This means only one thing : They are regrouping, re-arming and preparing for vengeance.

13. A turbulent year for Thailand (and ASEAN).


Malaysia (Business)

1.Datuk Tony Fernandez will sell down his interests in Air Asia. More active participation from Middle East players and Bumiputera centred institutional fund managers in Air Asia.

2.Labu LCCT project will not take off.

3.The merger of two or more banks to form a mega bank positioned to compete at regional levels.

4.Major changes in the railway industry beginning with KTMB and a possible second operator finally taking shape.

5.The establishment of unit trust funds specifically for Sabah and Sarawak in the likes of the current ASB.

6.Proton will move beyond Mitsubishi to form a business partnership with a European car maker most notably VW or Peugeot. Talks of merger with Perodua may also surface and be taken seriously.

7.Malaysia Airlines will form a ‘partnership’ with SIA.

8.AK will make some major moves in the market with probably institutional investor support. ASTRO may be taken private.


Malaysia (Politics and Social)

1.Will be a defining year for Malaysia. What Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak says and does immediately after taking over the reigns of the administration will define Malaysia for the next 50 years. He has 2 options : Go back to Mahathirism OR push forward with the reforms set in place by the Abdullah administration. The BN convention slated for early next year will be a watershed in Malaysian politics. The aftermath of this convention may see some BN component parties striking out on their own.

2.The Pakatan Rakyat will be severely tested. But, Perak Penang & Selangor will go further away from BN’s grip.

3.Radical Indian activism will take root.

4.Samy Vellu will not last the year as MIC president.

5.MCA will face its most serious leadership struggle in decades.

6.The return to active politics of certain questionable personalities will weaken UMNO's moral leadership further. The birth of a new generation of Young Turks will define UMNO's future and continued relevence to Malaysian polity.


In summary, I anticipate 2009 to be an exciting year which will define how future generations look at this generation. The world of business will witness a total re engineering with substance finally getting its deserved due over form. Asia-Pacific will still be the focus point of world economy.