The following was what I had predicted for 2009. Lets see how I had done this time (in italics)!
Global Trends and Changes (Business)
1.Mega mergers of financial institutions. Probably involving North American and European banks. American law makers will pass a slew of new acts to allow the Feds to keep all forms of financial institutions under close scrutiny. Been there and done that.
2. Chinese manufacturing may not recover from the current slump and this vacuum could be filled by India, Mexico and the former Soviet block countries. In India especially, manufacturing will loose it’s ‘dirty’ tag and become a profession of choice just as IT and services related jobs. I know Chinese manufacturing had lost some of its luster and the millions of workers who were forced to return to the villages were partly blamed for the sporadic violence against government officials and institutions. Indian automotive players made some news (local and foreign) but not much else. I have blogged on what the Nano is going to do for India and by default for the rest of the world.
3. Chinese and Indian firms will aggressively buy into ailing companies at fire-sale prices. Possibility of Indian, Chinese and Middle Eastern investors gaining a foot-hold in Detroit’s automotive industry is quite high. The talk is that Chinese players like Shanghai Automobile Company are getting into Detroit. We all know that Land Rover and Jaguar is part of the Tata brands now.
4. More mergers in the airline industry with Asian flag carriers being the target this time. Asian airline have decided on status quo but British Airways had bought Spain's Iberia
5. The birth and widespread use of extremely affordable note-books which will change the industry inside-out. This will most possibly be spearheaded by giants like IBM and Microsoft with India, China and Latin America as the target markets. Not sure about this. Over the last two years I have been noticing a steady announcements on companies developing affordable computers including laptops. I was hoping that 2009 will be the year for this.
6. Mega mergers of auto manufacturers. Yup. Fiat had a field day in Detroit.
7. Reconfiguration of air-line industry. As above. Though I have forgotten why I have two inputs on the airline industry?!
8. Hostile take-over of Yahoo by Microsoft! They tried. God knows they tried!
9. Mergers involving the world’s three biggest pharma companies with GSK leading the way. Some happened. Pfizer and Wyeth for example.
Global Trends (Politics and Social)
1. 2009 will be defined by Barrack Obama. He will have to manage the unbridled expectations placed on him and the payback that the various interest groups will be clamoring for. The world will begin to see more and more of America’s soft power. As of this week, Obama’s approval rating was hovering around 47%. The honeymoon is over. But, he did indeed make news. From his ‘bow or not to bow’ to his so called multi-tasking are becoming ‘Oprah’ish stuff.
2. Russia will flex its muscles further much to the chagrin of the hawks in Washington. A proxy war of sorts is in the cards. Russia’s dominance in gas supply to Europe will once again become the point of contention. Remember Ukraine?
3. Japan will edge closer to end its pacifist constitution which will anger China. A new schism is quite possible in East Asia. Nope. Japan is as insular and as boring ever.
4. Chinese social revolt will finally come onto international radar screen. The Uighurs were in the news! Amazingly, as I followed the unfolding of this tragedy, I realized how new technologies have enable us to conceptualize, launch and manage an uprising (for whatever reasons)…remotely. I suppose today you can ban someone from staying on your soil but that doesn't mean you can stop her from holding the heart-strings of her followers. Thanks to the internet.
5. India’s relation with Pakistan will worsen and a war between these nuclear powers should not be ruled out. Unless of course, America and the international community decides to avoid an all-out war between these two countries by waging a managed war on Pakistan’s terrorist sheltering regions with UN blessings. As always and as what many believe, Pakistan’s semblance of governance exists only because it is anti India. Take that away and we have a full-fledged rogue nuclear nation. However, things may not be rosy for India with its national elections looming. A hung parliament is likely with the Congress and BJP loosing ground to regional parties. Economic and business wise, things should be quite predictable with the Indian Century continuing its progress. Well, I was way off on the hung parliament stuff as the Congress against all odds consolidated its powers and wiped out many of the regional pests. I know you are laughing….who can ever go wrong by predicting that Indian-Pakistani tensions will rise?!
6. Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities while the Palestinians will look away from America as their peace brokers. Barrack Obama and his team will not have the same kind of self-proclaimed importance for the Arab-Israeli peace process. Hasn’t happened yet but the talk was serious last month and is still a possibility. Maybe a little Christmas present from the Israelis and plunge the rest of the world into despair perhaps?
7. The consolidation of institutions of higher education in the form of branding and marketing. Nope. Proud ivory towerians they are!
8. Protectionist policies and rhetoric will trump free market and liberalization. China will do all it can to protect its economy for anything less will create an unprecedented social calamity. This shift back to ‘hermit economy’ will put the Chinese and the Americans on a loggerhead. Europe will gravitate to more conservative policies spearheaded by France. All over the world, proponents of globalization and free market economy will find themselves hard pressed to explain that globalization is the way forward. Well….just read the news and you will know I was bulls eye on this! When the US announced its almost 800 billion dollars stimulus package, it also made sure that construction projects only used American made steel and iron. This blocked out China, Brazil and Russian made materials. Similarly a recent row broke out over Chinese made automobile tyres.
9.A major military conflict in Africa with Mugabe playing a key role. Nope…but who is keeping track of conflicts in Africa?
10.China will be less tolerant of North Korea. We may see some real breakthrough with the Hermit Kingdom but not before a huge nuclear scare in the Korean peninsular. Yes. China was less than thrilled with the North Koreans hurling spare missiles over Japan.
Malaysia (Business)
1. Datuk Tony Fernandez will sell down his interests in Air Asia. More active participation from Middle East players and Bumiputera centred institutional fund managers in Air Asia. Nope. Not yet!
2. Labu LCCT project will not take off. Oh yes!
3. The merger of two or more banks to form a mega bank positioned to compete at regional levels. Nope.
4. Major changes in the railway industry beginning with KTMB and a possible second operator finally taking shape. Sad. Nothing.
5. The establishment of unit trust funds specifically for Sabah and Sarawak in the likes of the current ASB. Nope.
6. Proton will move beyond Mitsubishi to form a business partnership with a European car maker most notably VW or Peugeot. Talks of merger with Perodua may also surface and be taken seriously. Both are in the news. Something is simmering.
7. Malaysia Airlines will form a ‘partnership’ with SIA. Nope.
8. AK will make some major moves in the market with probably institutional investor support. ASTRO may be taken private. He did make a move…by bringing back Maxis into the public domain.
Malaysia (Politics and Social)
1. Will be a defining year for Malaysia. What Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak says and does immediately after taking over the reigns of the administration will define Malaysia for the next 50 years. He has 2 options : Go back to Mahathirism OR push forward with the reforms set in place by the Abdullah administration. The BN convention slated for early next year will be a watershed in Malaysian politics. The aftermath of this convention may see some BN component parties striking out on their own. Well...Najib has not done anything earth shattering but neither has he reverted to Mahathir style leadership; except perhaps in Perak.
2. The Pakatan Rakyat will be severely tested. But, Perak Penang & Selangor will go further away from BN’s grip. Yes on all counts. At least to me except for Perak. That was a rabbit out of BN’s hat.
3.Radical Indian activism will take root. Yes. The struggle has gone underground. Again. I have said it many times before : the Indian dilemma needs solving. Otherwise, a huge, violent underclass will bring our urban areas to its knees. Lets not forget that the Indians have a collective history of resistance and ‘nationalism’ towards a cause that they can draw lessons from. Besides, the latest round of protests are lead by the Indian intelligentsia which knows how to use all modern political and avenues open to them. I was going through some of my old letters to editors and I came across a letter that I wrote to the NST almost 10 years ago. I wrote then that if the MIC did not change, it will be one of the major cause for BN’s decline.
4. Samy Vellu will not last the year as MIC president. This was a close one. But, who knows. But then, the man had always beaten all predictions.
5. MCA will face its most serious leadership struggle in decades. Amazing right? I just felt it in my coffee fueled guts then.
6. The return to active politics of certain questionable people. The man they call Isa is back by popular demand! Sad.
In summary, I anticipate 2009 to be an exciting year which will define how future generations look at this generation. The world of business will witness a total reengineering with substance finally getting its deserved due over form.
All in all not too bad for some predictions done at the Starbucks at Borders, Curve. The wonders of an Americano grande and some quite time!
Got to do that again soon for 2010.
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