According to a minister in the Prime Minister’s department (as quoted by the Edge), Malaysia will need to grow at 7% per annum to achieve Vision 2020. In other words, we have to grow at a break-neck speed of 7% for the next 10 years to be able to call ourselves a developed nation, at least in accordance to its definition contained in the Vision 2020 master plan. I think it is do-able as a confluence of factors have prepared the groundwork for Malaysia to jump-start her stalling progress.
The rapid fire announcements of liberalization and new strategies being bandied about are a direct result of this realization and the fact that going the way we have been going and doing what we have been doing will probably send our beloved Tun Mahathir to his grave without having had the satisfaction of achieving or at least coming close to achieving Vision 2020.
But really, is this too little too late or is this the turning-point that is going to take Malaysia out of her middle-income curse? Time, as always will tell but here are some reasons why I feel optimistic (guardedly) :
1. Thailand is right now hovering in our collective consciousness as all and sundry can see how easy it is to spiral down towards economic and social oblivion.
2. Indonesia is pricking our hearts (the envious side) as Indonesia seems to be galloping ahead on all fronts and her economic, social, legal and industrial engines are firing on all cylinders while ours seem to be chugging along on Senandung Malam speed. Even as I am writing this, CNN and western media and leaders are appalled at the bombings of 2 hotels in Jakarta. If you listen carefully, you can detect a new slant to these reporting : Indonesia is no longer a backward third world country where terrorism is an ‘expected’ norm. The latest bombings in Jakarta are reviewed as if it has happened in Basel or Brussels…. ‘How can this happen in Indonesia’. That’s how far Indonesia has come since Sukarno, the Timor crisis and the Bali bombing.
3. We messed up our economic and social structures so much that, we can only improve for the better with these measures. Mahathirism and its accompanying policies and strategies have bled this nation to enrich a select few from all the major ethnic groups; Tun did what he knew he had to do and expecting him to be prefect on all fronts is giving too much credit to that man. He succeeded as much as he failed. During his time, continued economic prosperity was able to throw morsels of benefits to the under-class and they were happy. But, with today’s economic and financial limitations, the under-class produced by the decades of BN/UMNO/Mahathir led machinery refuses to be hoodwinked. They want a real piece of the pie and not just an illusionary piece. The old mandarins can no longer hold their credibility.
4. The current financial crisis was the impetus that we needed to shed archaic policies and arguments. To break away from the shackles of old paradigms which has long ago lost its relevance, Malaysia needed a set of circumstances beyond and neutral of her self that can compel her internal stake holders to come together for the good of all. Although previously there were honest and heroic voices from within that demanded dramatic changes, these voices could not break through the racial and vested interests which are an integral part of Malaysian society. Today, with the pressures of a globalized economy and the threat of continued financial meltdown, Malaysia will get its acts together. There is just no other alternative.
5. Najib. What can I say. The man is doing IT and doing it FAST. I just hope it lasts beyond the 100 days hoopla. I hope there will be more tangible action. I was browsing through a teenage life-style magazine at Starbucks recently and there was a poll conducted among this generation on how they would grade Najib’s performance so far. Most of them scored him As and Bs on policies but Cs and Ds on execution. But, I have a feeling concrete actions will come from this administration.
6. The return of our prodigal sons and daughters after years of being away from the motherland. This financial melt-down has forced them to return. And, they are not returning with only clothes on their backs (some of them are) but also with valuable skills, knowledge and experience. Hopefully they speak better English too and I am praying that there are not that many road-blocks put in their path. Don’t tell me that a Malaysian-born dentist who has studied and worked in the UK can’t get a job here just because he doesn’t have credit in Bahasa Malaysia (although he damn well better speak the national language soon. I am a firm believer that it is a shame when a Malaysian can’t speak in the national language. I don’t care about SPM grades though!).
7. Singapore will loose its shine and by default, we stand to gain. Or, Singapore may move up higher in the value chain and we gain from the vacuum she leaves behind. Increasingly, I think Singapore may one day find it self as an unworkable ‘idea’ and she will learn to work more closely with her neighbors especially Malaysia to stay relevant ideologically, politically and economically. There will be genuine partnership now.
8. I have my doubts about China’s long term viability. Yes! You read it here first and I am not interested to be right or wrong. It’s just a gut feeling. China is a miracle wrapped in a mystery buried in enigma. We hear their numbers. We see their cities. We watched their Olympics. We know their financial prowess. But that is not China….or at least that is not the whole of China. Until we are allowed to know more of that wonderful land, I will be a skeptic. The recent Uighur up-rising and China’s super-secretive military spending are warning signals that should not be taken lightly. So, in the event things don’t go so well there, we are better positioned than most others to fill in the gaps. But, if China is indeed a the next global economic super-power, we will not loose out either. A nice position to be in.
9. India too. Although a democratic India will not throw up too many surprises. But, 600 million strong non-middle income group is a force to be reckoned with. They could swing either way. Our hope is that the other 400 million middle-class power house will be generous enough to spread the wealth enough to create an equitable society which will be good for all. Again, a stable and prosperous India will be good for Malaysia.
10. Political maturity. Malaysian politics may not experience the kind of stability (some will call it predictability) as before but as each day passes, we are becoming more mature in the way we view our nationhood and the relationship between the sums that makes the whole of this blessed country.
We will make it and we must. There is no other options.
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